From anticipating AI trends to guiding legal battles and beyond, let’s take a comprehensive look at what awaits in the world of AI in 2024.
Very few people successfully predicted how quickly generative AI would gain momentum in 2023. Before gazing into a virtual crystal ball again, futurist Daniel Burrus believes there’s a simple process that can help us better forecast what’s awaiting on the horizon. All you need to do is separate hard and soft trends.
“Hard trends” are things we know will happen, like the growth of technology and an aging population. These are facts we can count on. On the other hand, “Soft Trends” are possibilities that might happen but can change. They depend on factors like how quickly people adopt new technology or regulatory changes.
We already know that OpenAI has big plans for 2024. A hard trend could safely be anticipated: Chat GPT 4.5 will arrive in the year’s first half, and version 5.0 will drop in the second half of 2024. A soft trend could be achieving AGI. It might occur, but it seems unlikely until at least 2025. With this in mind, what can we expect from AI in 2024?
The rising tide of AI-related lawsuits
In 2023, we saw a substantial rise in cases, notably with The New York Times announcing its purpose to sue Microsoft and OpenAI for billions. Even a turbulent time at OpenAI was extended like a Netflix drama with the brief dismissal and subsequent reinstatement of co-founder and CEO Sam Altman.
OpenAI, Microsoft, and GitHub are also embroiled in another lawsuit over the alleged unauthorized use of code in the AI tool Copilot. But there’s another wave of lawsuits against developers of generative AI, including Stability AI and Midjourney, blamed by artists for training their text-to-image generators on copyrighted artwork.
These legal actions highlight the complex and growing issues surrounding intellectual property rights in the age of artificial intelligence. A report that we can expect to continue throughout 2024.
Digital deception and the proliferation of deep fakes
As fake person generators and deep fake videos become examples, we can safely expect more of the same in 2024. Voice-cloning technologies can already accurately replicate human voices and threaten the security of banking systems. But its importance in 2024 will extend beyond personal security to broader areas, from corporate spying to political manipulation.
The expansion of digital fraud necessitates an urgent response, underscoring the growing need for technical detection tools and expert knowledge. These tools and dexterities will be critical in identifying and balancing AI-generated falsifications, thereby safeguarding the virtue of information in a rapidly growing digital world.
AI in your pocket
It was recently announced that Apple wants to shift its AI strategy by directly enabling AI processes on its devices rather than relying on cloud-based systems. But what would AI in our pocket look like?
Large Language Models (LLMs) functioning natively within smartphones would be a powerful technological advancement.
Inevitably, this action would lead to Apple and Google creating tests and beginning the rollout of highly advanced voice assistants. Leveraging blended LLMs could open up more refined and intuitive user interactions. Although we might see a few reports toward the year’s end, I wonder if we will see anything in 2024.
Google’s search empire faces a new AI challenge.
The possible rise of copilots as a dominant force in the tech industry poses a critical challenge to Google’s long-established search business model. As these AI-driven assistants become increasingly dominant, the spotlight turns to Google, raising questions about its ability to stay ahead in this rapidly developing landscape.
The stakes are high with the launch of Gemini Ultra. Many will watch on the sidelines to see if it will live up to the promotion or fall short, leaving room for competitors like OpenAI to capitalize with their creative updates and model releases. It could go one of two ways for Google, but if it falters in this high-stakes game, it could trigger a substantial shake-up within the company.
Suppose the tech behemoth grappled with the ramifications of losing ground in a field they once dominated. This scenario paints a picture of a dynamic and fiercely competitive tech world where the actions of industry giants have far-reaching importance and a wave of high-profile resignations, starting with critical figures in Google’s AI division.
However, Google could succeed in 2024, so grab your popcorn because things could be about to get very impressive.
AI wearables
AI wearables are another thrilling soft trend that pivots away from traditional screen-focused devices towards more integrated, context-aware wearables that blend unobtrusively into our personal and professional domains. But could it signal the start of a journey into a post-smartphone world?
2024 could be the year we see wearables as much more than nice-to-have devices. For example, continuous health monitoring devices, like glucose monitors and insulin pumps, are prime examples of how wearables are opportunities in chronic illness management.
Humane’s AI Pin is promising a future where technology is not just worn but is also a style statement. However, the discreet nature of these devices raises important privacy concerns, especially in light of their ability to record and process personal data. The possible legal implications in different scenarios, such as driving while wearing smart glasses, also highlight the need to balance innovation and regulatory compliance carefully.
AI wearables are destined to evolve and become more integrated into our lives. Many believe they will be seen as a tool for health management and lifestyle enhancement. However, the success of rebranding wearables will be defined by the delicate balance between safeguarding privacy and improving the user experience.
AI-powered attacks and countermeasures
Cybersecurity is also poised to undergo a massive transformation due to the increasing influence of AI. On the offensive front, AI is expected to amplify the sophistication and efficacy of cyber threats. We will likely see a surge in AI-driven tactics, including advanced deepfakes and intricate phishing schemes.
These strategies will encompass AI-generated malware and extend to automated attacks, shifting towards more dynamic and adaptable cyber threats. Using AI to craft convincing social engineering attacks poses a particularly daunting challenge, making it increasingly difficult to differentiate between legitimate and deceptive communications.
Defensively, the response to these heightened threats will be equally AI-centric, with new AI-based detection tools and applications. With identity and EM, businesses can offset AI-generated threats that standard security measures might miss.
We are approaching a future where the fight against cyber threats becomes more complex and interwoven with AI. Businesses need a more subtle and advanced approach to cybersecurity.
The rise of AI manipulation
In 2024, 49% of the world’s population in more than 64 countries will head to the polls in national elections. But voters will also be faced with the addition of advanced deepfakes and the spread of misinformation from all sides. These challenges will test the strength of democracy and raise important questions about the virtue of information in an era overwhelmed by AI-manipulated content.
Rather than being preoccupied with the pursuit of AGI, the more exciting stories of the year will be around striking a balance between harnessing AI’s abilities and guarding against its misuse. Finally, in 2024 and beyond, ethical and reliable development and deployment of AI technologies will hold the keys to securing a reliable and stable digital future for all. But as an endless optimist, I’m hopeful that one of the biggest changes we will see is that people will embrace AI as a work ally rather than a hazard.
